Every day I sorted through the economic meltdown, its out of date.. yesterday’s paper, its like reading last months news, there was no doubt it was coming, I have been through the cause in my last blog, but now a stranger feeling has emerged, markets are a gamblers paradise, and boy have they had a great game, but the situation that developed, the weirdness of the situation showed a underbelly of real worry, a bit like those high Fire, Police and City officials that surrounded Rudi Giuliani, while 9/11 was developing, they were totally ineffective, lost in there own self promotion, lower lieutenants were asking them for the instructions that never came, yes 9/11 was a world changing event, but they were so incapable of responding to anything, and they looked like, well useless…Only the Mayor was effective, and Rudi deserved his accolades, but in 9/10,11,12 2008 it was the same except there was no Mr Giuliani, for once and the only time in his whole career W Bush was on the ball, the fear was in his eyes, and nobody listened, he pleaded, put his head in his hands and the world ignored him, so the mess just started to deepen, like the Titanic with out a rudder, you know its going to hit an Iceberg, but which one and how big, everyone is hanging on to the rails as another big block of ice scrapes the weakening hull, and if you had looked up at the bridge, who would you see well… nobody, only a few junior officers were left up there and to scared to leave their posts or jump overboard, the ship had now a scary unpredictable life of its own and everyone, the whole world was a passenger going along for the ride and waiting for their fate.
For the people in centre of the tropical storm it was turmoil, there was no systems to put into place, no ideas, because everybody was so geared to running markets one way, on how to make billions out of hundreds of dollars and not the other way round, so the basics started collapsing, banks simply ran out of money, wouldn’t lend, needed anything to survive, time to jump out of the window……
Bush’s crying and pleading finally hit a note, and then every American including the self serving Republican senators, finally got the idea that they were the Titanic and a very very big iceblock was now towering over them all waiting to sink the good olde UsofA, the $700 million dollar bailout was pushed through faster than a Big Mac at a McDonalds drive-through window service.
a relief, its over, saved…thank god, thew………..but the next day the world markets went through the floor, the bailout didn’t even register…oh god…its out of control the ship IS holed and the water IS coming in…time to jump
..Then a market would rally, Asia and everyone went back to bailing out the water…”its okay, we’ll get through this, hooray!”…Then Europe would slide, “Oh God its is really over”…and head for the window again, and then every market would slump, the a slight change in the price of the yen and everyone would run back away from the windows again to start bailing frantically again and the markets would rally slightly, “yay, thank god”, Then the London banks started to disintegrate, Europe’s losses began to climb straight up, the Germans were next, The Russians closed theirs and Iceland simply dissolved into nothing, the markets collapsed and the banks froze…..this was it……time to jump
Gordon Brown brought a plan to the table, even the Americans said it was good and would now listen to anybody or anything to stop this madness, it was adopted and the markets steadied, but then as they moved slightly away from open window, Markets went everywhere, nobody trusted nobody, credit froze, Mr California, Schwarzenegger noted casually that he had a slight problem of cash, which is he had none and that he needed a handout, and by next tuesday if possible as now his state is poorer the Mexico, and would really help to be a part of Mexico to pay his bills.
The markets went into total Quantum physics mode, unpredictability was what you looked at five minutes ago, and now was there or then, Dow Jones was up, down, up, Hang Sang went down, right down then up, then down, Yen went down then up, then right down, Australian dollar went down then down and down, US Dollar went down, up, up, down..computer screens looked like video games, like the machine was on the blink or just gone mad, markets down then up, down, down, up, …people were just putting numbers in, anything, the only thing to happen next was for the screens to go blank as they reached their program perimeters, flashing numbers…….if you wanted to jump, you would have just to get away from the madness, Oil was going through the floor…….its $70 a barrel……now it $63 a barrel, a month ago it was $150 a barrel!….madness, who is in control?……
nobody…and that was the point everything was totally random, the whole world was just speculating on nothing, pulling here, pushing there..realty was the system was chaotic, and people and investors were losing simply billions and billions……i need a window….time to jump.
History will show what the fall of 08 will be, its not a copy of 1929, or 97, it will be unique, a time when we lost control, it was saved for now by an election, people are holding their breath, markets have steadied, countries have controlled interest rates, banks are full of government saviour money, the worst my be over, but i don’t think so…
The first problem is Americans are totally sure that putting Barack Obama in the White House will change the situation overnight, and by the middle of next year its all going to be hunky dory, Change…the slogan is, yes it is a new start, a clean slate…out with old in with the new, he’s young, gifted and optimistic…….and he will fix it, the economy, the black issue, the war, the other war, our credit, our roads, our healthcare, pretty sure by 2010, we will be shopping again just like last year……bring it on…….except..
he can’t, because the reality is we haven’t seen the bottom yet, yes the meltdown has happened, yes the Kings of Wall Street are now sleeping in their cars, the banks are speaking to each other again god bless them, but deep down the excess of the top is going down to the deep bottom, and here is where are our problems and Mr Obama’s are coming as huge as the Titanic slipping beneath the waves, as the real money dries up, so will the spending and the jobs and empty housing market, and the investors, the real hardship will then hurt, the debt is there, Americans are well over their heads, the cost of the war(s), and a poor internal infrastructure that needs cash now just to stay alive, small business will close, and even worse the world is not going to get them out of it, with the US Dollar the currency of the world in business, most went through Wall Street, but would youn trust Wall Street with your money now, they promised you and promised but spent your dividends on their lives, their houses, and put in their banks, they didn’t just not deliver on your profits but they spent it on themselves and shook the champagne glasses in your face, would you trust them now with your money, the Swiss are boring but they don’t spend your money or lose it, and will sens you enough profit to make you smile at the end of the year, The Americans said it will be fine after losing you millions in that Dot com. fiasco, and as Walt is great guy, you just have to like him, you trusted him again, but this time it really hurt, and why, because for a brief moment you saw like when 9/11 came down, there was really no one running the ship, nobody at the wheel of the Titanic, its great going up, but if anything comes up on the horizon, like a great big bloody iceburg, Wall Street will sail you right into it, and not safely around into the safe harbour, This one was way way to bad, and I just won’t take that chance again….my money will not go back to New York it will be shared around, Asia, Europe, Japan, now they are good with money………..